Currently, there is a 1 in 233 chance of this thing hitting us on April 13, 2029…. That’s Friday the 13th, btw. And right before taxes
That’s better odds than rolling perfect 20s on two D20 dice.
It’s too soon to start looting though.
But here’s the analysis based on that previous impact report:
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 2.83 x 1019 Joules = 6.76 x 103 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 9.8 x 104years
Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 9340 meters = 30600 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 12.5 km/s = 7.74 miles/s
The impact energy is 2.77 x 1019 Joules = 6.62 x 103MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.698 km by 0.494 km
Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth’s rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth’s orbit noticeably.
Crater Dimensions:
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.
Transient Crater Diameter: 6.53 km = 4.06 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 2.31 km = 1.43 miles
Final Crater Diameter: 8.39 km = 5.21 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.561 km = 0.349 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.174 km3 = 0.0418 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 5.2 meters = 17.1 feet
Thermal Radiation:(note: 100 km away)
At this impact velocity ( < 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage. Seismic Effects: The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 200 seconds. Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.2 Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 1000 km: Nothing would be felt. However, seismic equipment may still detect the shaking. Ejecta: The ejecta will arrive approximately 494 seconds after the impact. At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments Average Ejecta Thickness: 16.3 micrometers = 0.641 1/1000 of an inch Mean Fragment Diameter: 118 micrometers = 4.64 1/1000 of an inch Air Blast: The air blast will arrive at approximately 3030 seconds. Peak Overpressure: 1090 Pa = 0.0109 bars = 0.155 psi Max wind velocity: 2.56 m/s = 5.72 mph Sound Intensity: 61 dB (Loud as heavy traffic) I have a few ideas of things to get done by then, but what will you do when the meteor comes?
